The day probability saved the iPod
iPods are incredible machines with scores of features packed into a sleak, pocket sized super computer. Everything about my iPod makes me smile, the vibrant screen, the touch wheel with integrated control buttons, the playlists, the tv shows, the podcasts, oh and the album art... everything except the most basic feature - the SHUFFLE.
Why is it everytime I "Shuffle Songs", my music seems to defy the rules of RANDOM. I started noticing this phenomena a few weeks ago. The same artists would pop up a few songs after themselves, which is unusual in a library with 4578 songs, right?
My friend Matt could probably explain it better because he took way too many Game Theory courses in college (something about a major?). The trick is in calculating the probability of the event not happening and subtracting from 1 to find out the probability that the event will happen. For example:
first song can be anything of the 4600: (1)
probability the second song isn't of the same album: (4590/4599)
probability the third song isn't of either album: (4580/4598)
probability the fourth song isn't of any previous album: (4570/4597)
probability the Nth song isn't of any previous album: ([4590-10*(N-2)]/[4501-(N)])
Multiply all together and you got yourself a probability of non occurence - subtract from one and you have your proability of occurence.
If you carry the one you find out that in a 12 song set I have 12% chance of hearing two songs from the same album. In 27 songs I have a 50/50 chance of hearing two tracks from the same album... it's math, it doesn't lie.
Would you believe in a room with 41 people there is a 90% chance that two of them share a birthday... isn't math amazing? And you thought all that stuff you learned in college was a waste.
How can a product from the same Mac line that inspires us with simplicity and appeal, disappoint in an area that seems so simple? The answer is our own human brain finds patterns in the randomness, leading to some theories that Apple is paid to choose certain songs as a form of marketing (wouldn't that be an awesome job).
Anyone else ready to go buy a new Samsung media player? yeah... me either
*note, I discovered this probablity info online while trying to figure out why my albums kept repeating - this is not a personal discovery, merely a summarized version of what other people much smarter than me proposed*
3 comments:
I've been baffled by that before as well. Although shuffle is still my favorite feature, since it allows you to find hidden "gems" in albums you thought were toast.
welcome back to the USA bullwinkel... hope to see a few more comments from one of our more loyal blog readers, especially now that you're not distracted by work or rogue RPGs.
for the record I continue to use shuffle.
Well if you're not expecting the second song by the same artist, wouldn't you say it is indeed random?
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